Despite the Heavy Blockade, Different Sectors Reported Stability and Even Predicted Greater Growth of Qatari Economy for Years to Come- Part 1

Doha--Prensa Latina: On June 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt broke off diplomatic relations and applied an economic siege to Doha, under the accusation of supporting terrorism, a postulation that the Qatari government denies.

Then, the economic insufficiency of the small State of the Persian Gulf was noticed, so dependent on imports for its domestic supply, and closely linked to its neighbors for a long time; however, it did not cost the country much to recover from the blow, still latent, according to economic results.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report published in June, days before the commemoration of two years after the breakup, indicated that the economic performance of the Arab nation improved in 2018, and that real GDP growth (excluding inflation) was estimated at 2.2 percent, compared to 1.6 percent two years ago. "The economy of Qatar has successfully absorbed the crises of the fall in hydrocarbon prices in 2014-16 and the diplomatic breakdown of 2017," reported the institution.

This improvement/restoration is equally palpable in everyday life, despite the fact that the issue of air travel for those who live or visit the country remains a pebble in the shoe, sources told Prensa Latina. They say that in the first months, after the breakup announcements, products began to be scarce; but today in shopping centers in this capital it is impossible to notice the existence of the blockade.

Diversity of products - from all continents - fill the markets, while new suppliers have replaced the previous ones and the supply of local products has diversified, from vegetables and fruits, to chicken, juices, milk and derivatives.

Perhaps the most popular example in this regard is “Baladna”, the main and largest producer of dairy products in Qatar, although it also has a juice line.

Located north of Doha, this farm has an advanced rotary milking parlor, and spares no efforts in the care of its 20,000 cows, so much so that they enjoy air conditioning and the first cattle arrived in the country no less than in Qatar Airways, just one month after the isolation attempt

Currently, Baladna supplies more than half of the domestic demand and exports milk to countries in the region and is also open to the public with learning areas, restaurants and even a small zoo for infants, so that it has become one of the family's recreational destinations.

According to information recently offered by the Central Bank of Qatar (QCB), the nation has completely come out of the initial damages of the restrictions, which is reflected in the normalization of capital flows, the comfortable position of liquidity of the banking system and the return of official foreign exchange reserves to the level prior to the blockade.

There is also a healthy growth of bank credit to the private sector and in the area unrelated to hydrocarbons.

 The trade and current account surplus and fiscal balance improved continuously, while capital flows normalized, increasingly diversified and from relatively stable sources, the institution said.

In its tenth Financial Stability Report, the QCB noted that the banking sector showed strong performance in 2018.

Although the assets grew below the previous year, there was an uptick in the demand of credit from the private sector because of the boost given by the government to small and medium enterprises.

The credits focused on agriculture, livestock and fisheries, as an expression of the search for solutions for local production.

The Central Bank also referred to the rebound in non-resident deposits and the flow of funds from foreign financial institutions, and indicated that almost all deposits from blocking countries have left the system, thus avoiding the risk of volatility.

On the other hand, the Main Index of Purchasing Managers, issued by the Qatar Financial Center (QFC) based on surveys of a panel of around 400 private sector companies not related to energy, revealed the existence of a strong optimism for the next 12 months, in consequence with the current commercial conditions.

"A little more than two-thirds of the companies expect a growth in commercial activity by mid-2020," said QFC Business Development Executive Director Alanoud bint Hamad Al Thani, quoted by local press.

In another order, the country's trade balance registered a surplus of 13.2 billion Qatari rials (approximately 3.6 billion dollars) during July, for 21.8 percent yearly, the Planning and Statistics Authority announced.

Exports - of national origin and re-export - amounted to 22 thousand 300 million Qatari rials (just over six billion dollars), an annual decrease of 16 percent, with Japan as the main recipient.

Meanwhile, imports of goods registered around 9 thousand 100 billion Qatari rials (2.5 billion dollars), for an annual growth of six percent, with the United States as the largest issuer.

The decrease in earnings in the first sector was perhaps due to the fall in oil prices - a fundamental line for the country - at the end of 2018, and in January and May of this year.

For example, the Qatari petrochemical company CEO Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company reported a net profit of 305 million Qatari rials (about $ 84 million) in the first half of the year, below the 361 million (about $ 99 million) reached in the same period of 2018.

At the beginning of August, the 46 companies listed on the Qatar Stock Exchange announced in their results for the first half of 2019 that the total profits were 19.6 billion Qatari rials (about 5.4 billion dollars).

This represents 6.2 percent less compared to the 20.9 billion Qatari rials (over 5.7 billion dollars) achieved during the same period last year.

Negative variables aside, most of the inhabitants and many specialists point out that the country has experienced a rebirth from the blockade, both from the point of view of national pride and patriotism, as well as socio-economic infrastructure, when forced to open up to options not explored before.

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